ethereum hard fork driving rally
  • Bullish vs Bearish - 85%
  • Probability - 85%

Ethereum (ETH) has exploded over the weekend and has gone up as much as 15% while bringing the entire crypto market up by more than $5 billion as well. With the impeding Constantinople hard fork scheduled for March 1st, the rally showed strength into Sunday and broke out of the ascending triangle going from $125 to $146 over a 24 hour period.

The parabolic move over the last 24 hours makes a short term decline and consolidation around $125 a likely possibility before the eventual run up closer to the Constantinople hard fork on March 1st. Key areas of interest now lie in the $120-$125 support area and $145-$150 resistance.

A close below $120 would not necessarily invalidate the scenario but would definitely lower the probability of justifying the $170-$180 target. Historically, hard forks have mostly been bullish events and we expect this hard fork to be no different. What’s more likely to happen is a breakdown of the parabolic move and consolidation taking place in the $125 area.

An eventual move up to and break out of resistance at $150 is the most likely next target with $170-$180 being the final target prior to Constantinople hard fork. This final target would coincide with consolidation that took place prior to mid December lows for 2018.

This scenario has a high likelihood of playing out with a few caveats. Firstly, consolidation below ~$150 resistance might not occur. Secondly, if $115 is broke then this scenario would be invalidated completely which we think is very unlikely. And thirdly, The target of $170 might get pre-ran in the $160-$165 area. Stay tuned for more updates on this developing set up.


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