- Bullish vs Bearish - 80%80%
- Probability - 75%75%
With the bulls back in control, Bitcoin hit over $4,000 on some exchanges after rallying from the lows of $3350’s in the past several weeks. The most recent rally was driven by Ethereum and its impending hard fork Constantinople as we had previously reported and we are expecting the rally to continue into march.
Right now Bitcoin looks to consolidate below $3900 and depending on today’s close, the probability of further consolidation around $3700 might further increase. A follow through to take the previous local highs at $4100 looks like a foregone conclusion and a high probability outcome.
What will be interesting to see is how high can this rally go. We are looking at closes above two levels very closely – $4300 and $4600. If the daily closes above $4300, $4600 becomes the next target. Now if $4600 is broken, which currently does not represent strong resistance, the only thing stopping Bitcoin from rallying up to $5500 will be the 200 MA.
However, $4300 has proved to be strong resistance over the last few months and Bitcoin has struggled to get a close above it. Before moon memes and gains flexing starts popping up on social media, $4300 break out is a pre-requisite.
As counter intuitive as it might sound, a lot depends on how the overall market rallies prior to Ethereum hardfork which is driving the current upswing. If Ethereum is able to break some of its own strong resistance levels, other coins will follow and along with it Bitcoin.